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Samson: Oil is at its highest price in four years and Saudi Arabia wants $ 100 a barrel

20th April, 2018

A number of British newspapers published reports on Friday that oil prices rose to their highest level since 2014, accompanied by higher prices for other metals, such as aluminum and nickel

“Oil Pressure: Crude Prices Reach Their Highest Level in Four Years,” the Financial Times wrote in its front page

The newspaper said that the rise in crude oil prices to more than $ 74 a barrel pushed energy companies to the forefront of global stock indices

The increase in oil production in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia over the past 16 months has been accompanied by heightened fears over the effects of Venezuela’s economic crisis and the threat of new US sanctions on Iran

Brent crude has risen almost 8 percent this year, the paper said
In the same context, the Daily Telegraph published a report entitled “Oil and metal prices rise after fears of sanctions.”

The paper points to the rise in aluminum prices in the world markets, which are subject to vibrations due to US sanctions on Russia and the escalating trade dispute between the United States and China Aluminum prices on London’s metal exchange rose 6 percent to $ 2,337 a tonne, the newspaper said

The lightweight metal has risen 22 percent since the start of the month after US sanctions on a number of Russian companies, which has reduced the ability of one of the largest aluminum producers in the world (Russian company Rosal) to trade in production in the world markets

Saudi speculation and Trump penalties

The paper also published an analysis by Andy Crichlow, who said that Saudi Arabia’s desire for oil prices to reach $ 100 a barrel raises the risk of speculation in world markets

The writer says that Saudi Arabia needs such a high price to cover the expenses of economic reforms and the war in Yemen, but “this strategy brings great risks to the markets that prepare,” as he put it

The writer attributed the reasons for the rise in prices to the unprecedented cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as the group of other oil producing countries, which has reduced global crude supplies to 1.8 million barrels per day since January

Russia also believes that a price of more than $ 100 a barrel is necessary to counter its economic malaise and to avoid a slow and painful economic bottleneck caused by economic sanctions imposed by the West

The writer speaks of the fear of Western countries of this congruence of interests between Saudi Arabia and Russia, pointing out that, despite the expectations of many experts on the lack of continuity of the alliance between the two oil giants in the light of the failure of previous experiments, their cooperation seemed continuous despite the completion of the task of reducing production and raise Oil prices

He sees this as a warning of a new “indefinite energy alliance” that controls almost half of the world’s oil supply, which will bring oil back to more than $ 100 a barrel, which will serve the interests of both sides

The Guardian published another analysis by Nick Fletcher entitled “Trump sanctions encouraged high oil and mineral prices”.

The writer attributed the reasons for rising prices to OPEC steps to reduce oil production and its agreement with Russia in this regard to protect oil prices

He believes this has happened even though US oil production threatens to undermine this strategy between OPEC and Russia

It also reverts to the sudden drop in US oil inventories this week, accompanied by concerns about oil supplies from the Middle East after the military strikes by the United States, Britain and France in Syria

The report also suggests that the United States is expected to return sanctions next month to Iran, OPEC’s third largest oil producer, over its nuclear program

Even if Iran is able to evade new sanctions, US President Donald Trump’s move to impose tariffs on iron and aluminum imports and more than 1,300 Chinese goods has raised concerns about a global trade war and its actions against Russian miners and sanctions. Imposed earlier this month by many Russian companies, will continue to have the greatest impact on the rise in oil, nickel and aluminum prices   LINK

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Don961: Dr..Abdul-Hussain Jalil Al-Ghalibi *: Choosing the appropriate drainage system for the Iraqi dinar under the double shock

BY  IRAQI NETWORK OF ECONOMISTS 
– POSTED ON 20/04/2018

entrance
The choice of the drainage system depends on the nature of the economic environment of the country concerned, the international environment and its commercial and financial partners. A stable economic environment dictates a kind of exchange system that is different from that adopted in conditions of instability and the economy is exposed to internal shocks, whether monetary (nominal) or real or external shocks or both. The following summarizes the indicators used to determine the exchange system in both cases.

First, selecting the exchange system in a stable economic environment

The drainage system can be selected under conditions of stability based on the following indicators:

To continue reading please download a simple PDF printable file. Click the link below

Abdulhussain Al-Ghalbi – Selection of the Exchange System of the Iraqi Dinar – Editor
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Dr.. Abd al-Husseini: Choosing a system that is dominant is the shock

The appropriate exchange for the dinar of dual Iraq

Entrance The selection of the drainage system depends on the nature of the economic environment of the country concerned, the international environment and its commercial and financial partners. A stable economic environment dictates a type of exchange system that differs from that adopted in non-convergence conditions and the economy is exposed to internal shocks, whether monetary (nominal) or real or external shocks or both. The following summarizes the indicators used in determining the drainage system in both cases.

First, selecting the exchange system in a stable economic environment

The drainage system can be selected under the screening conditions based on the following indicators:

1. Economic openness: Countries that are open to the outside world are low. External balance will cost them more than giving them the flexibility to link their monetary policy to their currency rather than stability. Therefore, it is better for them to adopt a flexible exchange system than the fixed exchange system. If the country is characterized by a high degree of openness, it is bound by it.

2.Only countries with higher domestic inflation rates than in their counterparts in the trading partner countries should adopt a flexible exchange arrangement to adopt fixed arrangements if inflation rates are lower than their trading partners.

3. The size of the economy: It is preferable to introduce a flexible price system for large and diversified economies , whose various sectors constitute markets for each other, thus reducing their dependence on the outside. Smaller, more diversified economies are expected to depend on the choice of fixed exchange arrangements as counterparties to external markets and their high degree of openness.

4. Regional integration and degree of concentration in trade: The further economic integration among the international regional groups has helped to stabilize the exchange rates of countries.The Optimal Currency is based on the theory of the optimal currency area. The integration of domestic and international financial markets leads to intervention arrangements in the exchange rate without leaving it fully flexible to limit the exchange rate from the desired level.

5. International reserves: The need for international reserves under the flexible exchange rate arrangements does not seem to be urgent because the differences in international payments will be corrected by the exchange rate, as opposed to the correction method under the fixed-exchange system that requires the use of international reserves.

The size of the reserves is linked to the price fluctuation between the trade exchange rate. There is a need for a kind of barter in reserves and the cost of non-exchange rate exchange. The float selection process is also an indication that there is no need to borrow the exchange rate.

6. Labor mobility: The more employment is characterized by cross-border mobility, prices and wages  are less flexible to the downside, so flexible exchange rate arrangements are preferable to fixed arrangements.

7. Movement of capital: The freedom of movement of capital between countries makes it difficult for the monetary authority to maintain a stable and stable exchange system because it will be a target for speculators.

8. Monetary authorities’ preferences: The degree of freedom desired by the authorities for the economy determines the disbursement arrangements adopted. If the authorities prefer to increase their power in the field of economic policy, they must choose flexible disbursement arrangements to ensure the external balance that will be the function of the exchange rate policy.

Selection of the drainage system under economic shocks (unstable economic environment)

If the economy is exposed to economic shocks, the previous criteria, which are used as the basis for the selection of the exchange system, are not feasible in determining the proper drainage system and should be directed to another mechanism that can be used to choose the system. This new mechanism depends on the shocks that the economy is experiencing,

1 : If the economy is Internal Monetary Shocks. Internal monetary shocks exposed to monetary shocks, interest rates will change. For example, if the shock is expansionary, interest rates will fall below global levels, pushing capital and the central bank to buy. The payments in the balance will cause a deficit to escape abroad to keep the exchange rate. Thus liquidity will decrease and the level of money supply will return to what it was. The price shows that the impact of the shock, domestic interest is equal to the global Cash is transitory and non-negotiable. If the exchange rate is flexible, the deficit in the balance of payments resulting from the outflow of capital due to lower domestic interest rates will lead to an increase (the depreciation of the current account) and thus stimulate and stimulate employment and income. The process must continue to expand income so as to generate income and employment. A new balance, ie, the monetary shock has caused instability: the expansionary financial shock.

2 . The real internal shocks will raise the interest rate from its equilibrium level of the global price, which allows the inflow of capital inward and result in a surplus in the balance of payments, which calls for the Central Bank to sell its currency in order to maintain the fixed exchange rate, which increases the liquidity and thus leads to an increase in income and employment And not to be confused with the stability of the exchange rate.

3 : Excluding the impact of external shocks. External shocks  requires a system of exchange is flexible enough to isolate the impact of these shocks from the local economy, otherwise, the fixed exchange system will transfer the impact of these shocks towards the local economy as a safe channel on transport while the flexible exchange rate stands and changes in order to drive the impact or a large part of the economy the local.

The choice of an appropriate drainage system for the urban economy 2 The fact that the Aramean economy enjoyed some type of resource pooling (oil revenues) in the period prior to 104 made the monetary authority encouraged by the adoption of a system of exchange that is close to stability in its general direction, but this situation is unacceptable. The ambiguity of the ambient environment and the exposure to the double-shock in 2014 in Double Shock have been a double shock in the barbaric barbaric attack led by the terrorist gangs and their takeover of the country, as well as the negative oil shock that was looming in the horizon.

High. As is well known, the financial shock of the government generates a real shock, and the decline of 2015 oil prices generated another real shock on the other. Iraq entered a year of severe double shock dictated by the commitment to move towards flexibility in exchange rates. Moreover, international reserves should not be exhausted in the defense of the exchange rate, which is part of the fixed arrangements and must be shortened in their use, Thus, the use of the above-mentioned and reliable indicators in the selection of the drainage system in the context of inventory is of no use and can not be relied upon under the control of shocks to the economy. The situation therefore necessitates leaving the fixed arrangements for disbursement and the orientation towards flexibility using the exchange arrangements that are eventually crawling and converging on the exchange rate managed more than the intervention of the central bank. Near the free market in which the role

In addition to this, there are many Almazia, which can enjoy their preferences under the protection of the flexible: the economy of the Arab

1.. Maintaining foreign reserves at the Central Bank.

2• Expanding the effectiveness of monetary policy in addressing economic problems rather than focusing its attention on the exchange rate.

3. Raising the exchange rate (devaluation) contributes to the financing of the general budget of the government.

4. Especially non-essential ones, which are usually flexible in their response and reduce the stability of exchange rate fluctuations with the tendency to support those important imports which are necessary from the community point of view. 5. Enhancing the competitiveness of local exports, even if they are few and limited.

6. Reducing the flight of capital and converting it abroad, as the cost of conversion will become high, which may be forced owners to invest at home.

7. Address external shocks because of its preferences in this field.

8. Elimination of speculations and manipulations of foreign currency.

9. The elimination of multiple exchange rates (official and parallel) and acceptance of one price is the market price

10. Encouraging foreign direct investment to enter local projects for lower construction costs compared to costs abroad. . 11. Rationalization of consumption, especially complementary and non-essential goods  due to higher prices in the internal market.

12. Inflation is an indirect tax.

13. Contribute to the promotion of small and medium-sized local enterprises and encourage them to produce large quantities. Importing a number to replace the local product instead of the importer, especially the goods produced by it, but because of the low exchange rate (dinar appreciation) These industries are turning their consumers abroad despite the quality of the local product sometimes.

We, God willing, have another talk about what follows from the policy of successive reductions of the currencies of the countries of the neighboring countries of the region to the present day, or what is happening within the context of the policy of impoverishment of the neighbor.

(*) Professor of Economics at the University of Kufa

Samson:   OVER 600 WORLD LEADERS TO GATHER AT HORASIS GLOBAL MEETING 2018 TO SHARE INSIGHTS & INNOVATIONS ON HOW TO JOINTLY INSPIRE OUR FUTURE

• The 3rd Horasis Global Meeting will convene over 600 leaders from more than 70 countries, representing business, government, academia, civil society

• The theme of the meeting is, Inspiring our Future

20th April, 2018

Horasis, a global visions community dedicated to inspiring our future, announces the 2018 Horasis Global Meeting to be held in Cascais, Portugal from the 5th-8th of May. The Horasis community of more than 600 selected world leaders, from 70 countries, will gather to discuss this year’s theme, “Inspiring our Future”.

Launched in 2016, the annual Horasis Global Meeting is one of the world’s foremost gatherings of business leaders who interact with key government officials and eminent thought leaders. The meetings are held to advance solutions to the most critical challenges facing corporations today.

This year, politicians and business leaders will meet to discuss and devise novel ideas which will help sustain and nurture development in the future. Throughout the four day event, talks and discussions are set to be held on topics such as sustainable development, modelling sustainable migration, blockchain, closing the gender gap, the digital future, embracing AI, youth employment, business as an agent of change, religion’s role in business and many more.

The event will gather an international roster of the world’s most prominent leaders. Among the political leaders to attend are Peter Mutharika, President of Malawi, Armen Sarkissian, President of Armenia, Ulisses Correia e Silva, Prime Minister of Cape Verde, Kristian Jensen, Minister of Finance of Denmark, HRH Prince El Hassan bin Talal of Jordan, and Mohamed ElBaradei, former Vice-President of Egypt and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, to name a few. Joining them will be a variety of CEO´s and representatives of the world´s most respected corporations, including Jose Manuel Barroso, Chairman of Goldman Sachs International, Nobuyuki Idei, CEO of Quantum Leaps Corporation, John D. Negroponte, Vice Chairman, McLarty Associates, and more.

“At Horasis we recognise that identifying globally relevant issues and growth strategies require thought leadership and peer-to-peer networks,” said Frank-Jürgen Richter, Chairman of Horasis. “With a number of leaders already confirmed I am excited to see how this year’s collaborative efforts can inspire our future.”

2018 Horasis Global Meeting is co-hosted by the Portuguese Government and the City of Cascais. The event will be held at the seaside resort of Cascais.

“We welcome Horasis with the certainty of a well succeeded and enduring partnership. During the last couple of years we have proved not only that Horasis is one of the most distinguished discussion forums around the world, but also that Cascais is the best place to welcome it,” said Carlos Carreiras, Mayor of Cascais.

About Horasis

Horasis: The Global Visions Community is an independent international organization dedicated to inspiring our future. Horasis hosts annual meetings to advance solutions to the most critical challenges facing corporations today. Flagship events include the annual Horasis Global Meeting as well as regional summits focusing on China, India, and South East Asia. For more information, visit: http://www.horasis.org      LINK

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Samson:  Lagarde: Lack of credibility among global trading partners must be adjusted

20th April, 2018

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) president said that credibility among global trading partners must be fixed.

Christine Lagarde told CNBC Thursday that she believes there are credibility issues that must be preserved.

The fund warned this week of the latest intensification of trade tensions, which began in early March with the United States announcing a series of tariffs.

“To deal with trade imbalances,” all countries must be at one table, “Lagar said.

The IMF said these tariffs could directly affect business and economic activity and could cause turmoil in financial markets that would tighten financial conditions and hurt confidence.

“Protectionism has increased in the past three years, as well as intellectual property issues and financial support for state-owned enterprises,” she said. “All this has to be discussed in order for there to be free trade     LINK

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Militia Man