Now, an item that has been popping up in the news and in dinar discussions a lot is article 140.
Most of the time when these articles or topics come up, unless it has something to do directly with the HCl, I tend to be a naysayer about their relevance…
This one is slightly different. It might be a good idea to have a background on what article 140 actually is.
In a nutshell, there are several areas that Erbil / the Kurdish government is attempting to claim as theirs, but are currently arguably under the Iraqi government rule, regardless of where they rightfully belong.
There is a power struggle going on and neither side would willingly walk away or give in without a good reason…
At this time the Kurds would not want to give them up because obviously they want the land and also the resources under the land, in addition to the historical and religious reasons.
Baghdad currently has a stronger political argument for ownership, plus they do not want to see the Kurdish region secede.
As stated by that author, the questions asked and games that are being played with the regions peoples are pretty much just trick questions.
They are being asked if they want independence, and not given a full understanding of what the question actually means, so there is a lot of ambiguity in the surveys and what is being reported to them and to the outside world.
But let’s forget about that, and think about it in another way. With the IQD being so undervalued, it actually would benefit the Kurds to separate and establish their own currency, which would probably be drastically higher than what the Iraqi dinar is right now.
This would be next to impossible, for many reasons, but let’s skip that for now. Baghdad does not want the Kurds to separate for the same reason, and also because that would mean they instantly lose a good portion of their oil reserves and would lessen their ability to create a stronger dinar for the entire country.
Some are saying that the HCL cannot go through without article 140 resolved, but it is also possible that by pushing the HCL through, and creating a stronger dinar for everyone including those in the contested regions, and those peoples would no longer have as strong of a desire for independence, and therefore end the entire dispute.
Obviously, that does not give you a date or a rate but I hope the food for thought is encouraging.
Source: Dinar iraq and Dong Vietnam